Return to 2021 Market Conditions? Housing Growth Accelerates in Uncertain Times

Australia’s housing market shows remarkable resilience with accelerating price growth across houses and units. April data confirms this trend, marking one of the strongest growth periods since 2021.

Growth accelerates across the board

The latest data reveals that house prices nationally rose by 0.4 per cent in April to reach a median of $917,433, representing an annual growth of 5.2 per cent. The unit market showed even stronger monthly momentum with prices increasing by 0.5 per cent to $685,637, delivering a yearly growth rate of 4.6 per cent.

Perth continues its extraordinary run as Australia’s standout performer, with house prices rising 0.9 per cent in April alone, pushing annual growth to an impressive 12.2 per cent. Perth’s unit market is performing even more strongly, with 1.2 per cent monthly growth and a remarkable 14.2 per cent annual increase.

The two-speed market that characterized 2024 persists but is showing signs of convergence. While Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane lead with robust price growth, the traditionally stronger southern capitals of Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra are now showing clear signs of acceleration, albeit from a lower base.

How much momentum?

Our analysis of month-by-month data shows that growth is picking up across nearly all regions:

• 13 out of 14 regions show accelerating growth when comparing the most recent three months to the previous three months
• Growth rates in the most recent month are particularly strong, with some regions approaching or exceeding 1 per cent monthly growth
• The acceleration is evident across both house and unit markets, with units in many areas outperforming houses

This widespread acceleration suggests we’re entering a new phase in the market cycle, with stronger conditions likely ahead as interest rate cuts materialize.

Safe haven in uncertain times

The strengthening housing market comes at a time of significant global economic uncertainty. Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs have created substantial turbulence across financial markets worldwide, reflected in the unprecedented spike in the VIX index—Wall Street’s “fear gauge.”

This economic upheaval has dramatically altered interest rate expectations. Markets now anticipate an almost certain cut at the next RBA meeting on May 20, which would benefit mortgage holders significantly and will almost certainly direct more money into the housing market. More cuts are expected to come through the remainder of the year.

In this environment of market volatility, residential property offers several distinct advantages:

• Greater price stability: Unlike shares which can lose significant value in a single trading session, property values adjust more gradually, providing investors with a less volatile asset class
• Tangible asset security: Property represents a physical, enduring asset with intrinsic utility value regardless of market conditions
• Immediate benefits from rate cuts: The anticipated RBA reductions will directly benefit property investors through lower mortgage repayments
• Supply constraints supporting values: Our analysis shows persistent undersupply continuing to underpin prices, with construction challenges limiting new housing stock

Policy impacts on the horizon

The upcoming federal election on May 3 has thrust housing policy into the spotlight, with both major parties unveiling significant packages aimed at first home buyers. These policies will likely add further fuel to an already strengthening market.

Labour’s plan to allow all first home buyers to purchase with just a five per cent deposit, with the government guaranteeing the remaining amount, will increase buyer capacity and competition in the market. The Coalition’s proposed mortgage interest deduction scheme for newly built homes would substantially reduce ongoing costs for eligible buyers.

While both policies aim to address affordability, they risk further inflating prices if not accompanied by meaningful supply-side reforms. The Productivity Commission’s research consistently shows that measures increasing purchasing power often lead to price increases in the targeted market segments.

Regional performance highlights

Western Australia continues its exceptional performance, with both Perth (12.2 per cent) and Regional WA (11.7 per cent) recording double-digit annual house price growth. Similarly, South Australia demonstrates strong momentum with Adelaide (7.8 per cent) and Regional SA (10.2 per cent) posting impressive figures.

Queensland maintains solid performance with Brisbane houses up 7.3 per cent annually and Regional Queensland up 8.4 per cent. These figures underscore the continued strength of markets outside the traditional powerhouses of Sydney and Melbourne.

The data reveals a clear pattern of price growth spreading from the resource-rich states that led the initial recovery to the larger southern capitals, which are now showing signs of acceleration.

Outlook: Stronger conditions ahead

Several factors suggest even stronger conditions ahead for Australia’s housing market:

1. Interest rate cuts: With markets pricing in multiple cuts beginning in May, borrowing capacity will increase, supporting further price growth
2. Global uncertainty: Financial market volatility will likely drive investors toward the relative safety of residential property
3. Supply constraints: The construction industry’s ongoing challenges will limit new supply, supporting existing property values
4. Policy stimulus: Election policies targeting first home buyers will inject additional demand into an already strengthening market

The data presents a clear picture: property price growth that began in January has gained momentum through February, March, and now April. With interest rate cuts on the horizon and increasing investor interest in the stability of residential property amid global volatility, this momentum appears likely to continue through the remainder of the second quarter.