by Nerida Conisbee | More about Nerida Conisbee The housing downturn is real and broadening, but the conditions required to produce a large national decline are considerably more demanding than the current conversation assumes. The maths is worth testing. Australia’s housing downturn is underway. Higher interest rates have reduced borrowing capacity, while the Federal Budget … […]
By Nerida Conisbee | More about Nerida Conisbee Higher interest rates are meant to bring inflation down. They also make new housing more expensive to build. The two largest policy forces acting on housing right now are pulling against each other. Headline inflation eased to 3.8 per cent in June, but housing inflation accelerated to … […]
By Nerida Conisbee | More about Nerida Conisbee Inflation eased in June. Fuel prices drove most of the improvement. Strip them out and the picture the Reserve Bank is watching – underlying inflation, housing costs, the labour market – has not moved. The Reserve Bank has left the cash rate unchanged, choosing to wait for … […]
By Nerida Conisbee The housing downturn is now broadening across cities and price points. How far prices can fall from here depends on a variable that most of the conversation has not caught up with: the cost of building a replacement home. Australia’s housing downturn is now underway. Higher interest rates have reduced borrowing capacity, … […]
By Nerida Conisbee | More about Nerida Conisbee Average open home attendance has nearly halved in a year. The decline was well underway before the Budget and has continued since. Whether it has now found a floor is the question the latest weekly data is starting to answer. Open homes have become noticeably quieter. Across … […]
By Nerida Conisbee | More about Nerida Conisbee The price crash narrative is gaining traction, but the real risk is not a uniform national decline. It is a more uneven market, where the segments that had the most policy support are now the most exposed to what comes next. Talk of a housing price crash … […]
By Nerida Conisbee | More about Nerida Conisbee The effects of previous rate increases are still flowing through the economy. Reading the Reserve Bank’s June decision means separating what has already been absorbed from what is still working its way through household budgets. The Reserve Bank has left the cash rate unchanged, choosing to balance persistent … […]
By Nerida Conisbee | More about Nerida Conisbee The latest listings data shows the sales and rental markets moving in opposite directions. Buyers are seeing more choice while renters are seeing less, and the Federal Budget is landing into that environment, not creating it. The latest listings data shows a clear split opening up in … […]
Nerida Conisbee | More about Nerida Conisbee The Budget’s investor changes are designed to moderate house prices by shifting demand toward new builds. What happens to the established rental pool when investors step back is the question worth sitting with. If policies reduce the number of rental properties in high-demand suburbs, rents will rise. Not because … […]
By Nerida Conisbee | More about Nerida Conisbee Policy change rarely lands neatly on its intended target. Measures aimed at investor demand and new supply can ripple into the willingness to transact, and that ripple travels further than house prices.